New Report: Forced displacement and OSINT in Catatumbo

Mapping Forced Displacement in Conflict: Open-Source Investigation and the Crisis in Catatumbo

Daniela Suarez Vargas, Lydia Millar and Luke Moffett

Between late 2024 and early 2025, Catatumbo in north-eastern Colombia experienced one of the most severe forced displacement crises in recent years. More than 100,000 civilians were forced to flee amid escalating violence between armed actors, widespread threats, confinement, and the recruitment of minors.

Our report (English and Spanish) examines how open-source investigation — including social media content, digital traces, and geospatial analysis — can help document and visualise patterns of armed violence and displacement where access is restricted and accountability pathways remain uncertain.

Working with 169 open-source publications, we mapped 123 geolocated entries to better understand displacement routes, points of origin and reception, concentrations of violence, and humanitarian response. The report also reflects on the ethical limits of this work, especially where children and vulnerable communities are concerned.

The Catatumbo crisis shows both the promise and the risks of open-source methods. Digital platforms can be used by armed groups to threaten, control, and recruit — but they can also preserve evidence, corroborate events, and support future truth, justice, and accountability efforts.

This is an exploratory study, but one with urgent implications: how do we better document forced displacement in real time, protect those affected, and ensure that victims are not rendered invisible?